New Hampshire, 2012 edition
wisdom from our gal in Walpole:
This map is the “baseline” of states that Kerry won in 2004. Note that it includes New Hampshire’s 4 Electoral votes, as well as PA, which is not a certain win. If Obama holds the “baseline” and wins Ohio (18 electoral votes), he still needs 6 more electoral votes – so a win in Iowa with its 6 EV would bring it to 270. But, without NH, he would need at least one more swing state. Basically, without the 4 NH electoral votes, all paths to 270 become more challenging. You can game out various scenarios, based on current polls, and quickly see that there are quite a few situations where that NH win could be determinative.
• The Romney campaign is far out-spending Obama in New Hampshire
• The Suffolk poll released today has NH tied at 47% to 47% with 4% undecided
• The final margin in New Hampshire will likely be between 7,000-15,000 votes (less than 2% of total ballots cast)
• If you remember the 2000 election, here are the NH vote counts:
Total votes: 569,081
Dem: 266,348 (46.8%)
Repub: 273,559 (48.07%)
margin for Bush: 7,211 (1.27%)
Al Gore finished with 266 electoral votes—he needed 270. If Al Gore had flipped 3,606 votes in New Hampshire, and won the 4 EV of New Hampshire, no FL recount, hanging chads, etc. This is why we are focusing on the get-out-the-vote effort in New Hampshire over these last few weeks.
New Hampshire absentee voting and voter information:
If you have friends/family in New Hampshire, you can let them know about the following:
• They can request an absentee ballot by submitting the form at http://ofa.bo/NHabsentee. The requirements for submitting an absentee ballot are the same in NH as here in MA.
• The deadline for ballots returned by mail is 5pm on Nov. 6, 2012.
• Voter ID in New Hampshire – NH does have a voter-id law. However, the list of acceptable IDs is quite reasonable. For instance, an expired driver’s license (especially important for older voters who have stopped driving), a picture student-id, and many other forms. But, if a voter does not have (or forgets to bring) an ID, he/she can sign an affadavit confirming their identity and will be given a ballot.
• New Hampshire Voter Hotline (866-2-VOTE-22) 1-866-286-8322
• Election Day problems at the polls
• Rides to the Poll requests
• Polling Place look-up
National Information on Voting and up-to-date information on voter-id and other voting
By PHONE: The Election Protection hotline has information for all 50 states. If you know anyone who has a question about voting/voting rules, this is a great resource. 1-866-OUR-VOTE or for those who prefer numbers 1-866-687-8683
ON THE WEB: www.gottavote.com