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October 19, 2012 / needhamgrassroots

New Hampshire, 2012 edition

wisdom from our gal in Walpole:

This map is the “baseline” of states that Kerry won in 2004.  Note that it includes New Hampshire’s 4 Electoral votes, as well as PA, which is not a certain win.  If Obama holds the “baseline” and wins Ohio (18 electoral votes), he still needs 6 more electoral votes – so a win in Iowa with its 6 EV would bring it to 270.  But, without NH, he would need at least one more swing state.  Basically, without the 4 NH electoral votes, all paths to 270 become more challenging.  You can game out various scenarios, based on current polls, and quickly see that there are quite a few situations where that NH win could be determinative.

Also note:

•      The Romney campaign is far out-spending Obama in New Hampshire

•      The Suffolk poll released today has NH tied at 47% to 47% with 4% undecided

•      The final margin in New Hampshire will likely be between 7,000-15,000 votes (less than 2% of total ballots cast)

•      If you remember the 2000 election, here are the NH vote counts:

Total votes:  569,081

Dem:    266,348 (46.8%)

Repub: 273,559 (48.07%)

margin for Bush: 7,211 (1.27%)

Al Gore finished with 266 electoral votes—he needed 270.  If Al Gore had flipped 3,606 votes in New Hampshire, and won the 4 EV of New Hampshire, no FL recount, hanging chads, etcThis is why we are focusing on the get-out-the-vote effort in New Hampshire over these last few weeks.

New Hampshire absentee voting and voter information:

If you have friends/family in New Hampshire, you can let them know about the following:

•      They can request an absentee ballot by submitting the form at http://ofa.bo/NHabsentee.  The requirements for submitting an absentee ballot are the same in NH as here in MA.

•      The deadline for ballots returned by mail is 5pm on Nov. 6, 2012.

•      Voter ID in New Hampshire – NH does have a voter-id law.  However, the list of acceptable IDs is quite reasonable.  For instance, an expired driver’s license (especially important for older voters who have stopped driving), a picture student-id, and many other forms.  But, if a voter does not have (or forgets to bring) an ID, he/she can sign an affadavit confirming their identity and will be given a ballot.

•      New Hampshire Voter Hotline (866-2-VOTE-22)  1-866-286-8322

•      Election Day problems at the polls

•      Rides to the Poll requests

•      Polling Place look-up

National Information on Voting and up-to-date information on voter-id and other voting 

By PHONE:  The Election Protection hotline has information for all 50 states.  If you know anyone who has a question about voting/voting rules, this is a great resource.  1-866-OUR-VOTE or for those who prefer numbers 1-866-687-8683

ON THE WEB:  www.gottavote.com

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